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Friday, September 29, 2006

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) AVANDIA

Results from the DREAM trial may have shattered hopes for a diabetes prevention therapy, as they and show mixed results for GSK's Avandia. Indeed, the findings may undermine GSK's hopes of generating double-digit sales growth for its drug.

The DREAM trial, (Diabetes Reduction Assessment with Rampiril and Rosiglitazone Medication) was designed to tested GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia (rosiglitazone) for a reduction in incidence of diabetes.

Although Avandia showed an impressive reduction for progression to diabetes, the clinical relevance of the co-primary endpoint seems questionable; no improvement in cardiovascular outcomes related to such glucose lowering was demonstrated, and the relationship was not able to be evaluated.

Avandia also caused a statistically significant seven-fold increase in heart failure, and resulted in an average weight gain of 2.4kg over the three-year period, which could encourage physical inactivity.

With further analysis, the risk/benefit assessment of Avandia administration does not seem positive; and GSK may struggle to receive approval for a label for prevention of diabetes from the FDA based on the DREAM study results.

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